About this Show

The Cycle

News/Business. Politics, the economy, media, sports and any other issues that grab people's attention. New.

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

SOURCE
Comcast Cable

TUNER
Virtual Ch. 787 (MSNBC HD)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
1920

PIXEL HEIGHT
1080

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 14, Toure 5, America 5, Oscar Pistorius 4, Schumer 3, Geico 3, Novolog Flexpen 2, Dan 2, Italy 2, Gevalia 2, California 2, Michelle Kosinski 2, Michelle Alexander 2, Washington 2, Nbc 2, Spielberg 2, S.e. 2, Gareth 2, Pat Morrow 2, Oscar 2,
Borrow a DVD
of this show
  MSNBC    The Cycle    News/Business. Politics, the economy, media, sports  
   and any other issues that grab people's attention. New.  

    February 22, 2013
    12:00 - 1:00pm PST  

12:00pm
redients, like roasted peanuts, creamy peanut butter, and a rich dark-chocolate flavor, plus 10 grams of protein, so it's energy straight from nature to you. nature valley protein bars. so it's energy straight from nature to you. they're coming. yeah. british. later. sorry. ok...four words...black monkey? a baboon? hot stew saturday!? ronny: hey jimmy, how happy are folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico? jimmy: happier than paul revere with a cell phone. ronny: why not? anncr: get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. i'm toure. right now, bailed out. s of tar pistorius walks out of jail. but for how long? i'm s.e. cupp.
12:01pm
new year's day seems like so long ago, the last time gas prices didn't rise. when's behind this, especially in the time of year it doesn't normally happen. gasp, has washington found a solution? i'm steve kornacki in philadelphia today. it's oscar weekend and we have the inside track of winning your office tactic. i know a new segue. ef "silver linings playbook." you have to watch. >> zing. the accused made a case to be released on bail. >> yes! >> some are happy but many still can't believe oscar pistorius is out on bail, even though he admits he shot and killed his girlfriend on valentine's day. bail was set at 1 million rand,
12:02pm
$113,000. with only $11,000 due up front. that's a pittance for a murder trial here in the u.s. the judge ruled he is not a flight risk and not a doing tore the public. but he said the state's case isn't water tight and blamed former lead detective of possibly contaminating the crime scene. both sides will be back in court june 4th. we start with nbc's michelle kosinski who was inside the courtroom. >> reporter: this is an emotional week with the world watching, culminating finally in the ruling being read and seeing oscar pistorius break down, sobbing, shaking and his family hugging and praying in relief. you might say it's fully expected. talking about this for days now. but this judge kept everyone guessing. the ruling lasted two hours. in it, he criticized prosecutors saying that their witness, this chief police investigator, presented flawed evidence, made
12:03pm
incorrect statements, should have done more work but he said that doesn't mean that the state's case isn't strong. next, he hit pistorius saying that the judge had problems with his account of what happened that morning. saying if pistorius felt so vulnerable and scared to grab a gun, start shooting, running actually in to the bathroom shooting from five feet away and not knowing who was in that room, why did he do that? why didn't he take one of many other opportunities available to him? then the judge ruled he is not flight risk or a danger to his community and granted him bail. he did up the amount of bail to more than $100,000. lots of conditions attached, too. he has to surrender the passports, guns, no drugs or alcohol. needs permission to leave his town and has to check in with police twice a week now. toure? >> nbc's michelle kosinski,
12:04pm
thank you. gareth a. davis is a journalist who's known pistorius for ten years. talk about pistorius for a second. you have interviewed the man. you have been watching him for a while. how surprised are you that we're talking about him having killed somebody? >> well, it's just an extraordinary -- i never thought i would be sitting here talking about it, frankly. i've known him since he was 17. when he first emerged on the pa pa paralimpics scene and he's always come across as an incredibly humble guy who is this amazing tale of a kid born without the shin bones in his legs who fought the world to run fast and been in court before where for two years showed extreme patience in getting permission to fight against the
12:05pm
iwaf and then the olympic movement to run in the world championships and also at the olympics last summer, as well as the paralympics and a poster boy for the movement and a rich celebrity in many ways. so, you know, from fairytale tonight mare and i'm not truly traumatized by it but incredibly shocked by the extraordinary events of eight days. >> a symbol of the movement, perhaps a symbol for all of us that the disabled are not disabled at all. they can be as great as anybody. and compete among able-bodied athletes. meant so much to so many. what does this to the paralympics and this person that they held up as a symbol? >> i think, you know, quite clearly, the president of the international paralympic committee did a car wash this week and on wednesday when he
12:06pm
tuesday, wednesday kind of wanted to put there that oscar pistorius may well have been the poster boy of the paralympic games and move to distance the movement if you like. in a way and say that, you know, the paralympic movement is not just oscar pistorius and a raft of amazing stars are out there which we all saw this summer in london here at the paralympic games and 2.7 million tickets were sold for the event. but, you know, it -- we're never going to get away from the fact that this is going to be -- it does have, you know, strains of what happened with o.j. simpson. it's a murder trial like no other at the moment. and not a bail trial. it's a bail hearing and feels like a murder trial. the summation today, the two-hour summation from chief magistrate desmond niyer just incredible. i don't know if you were watching or listening live. it was just -- he vacillated
12:07pm
early on and you thought that, you know, it was cut and dry and he was going to give bail to pistorius and then swung the other way for the prosecution. it was quite extraordinary. >> gareth, i'm wondering, has there been any backlash from the paralympic community? anyone coming out publicly to say, you know, that the damage that this has done is, you know, has been hugely impactful or, you know, obviously negatively. has there been any reaction aside from the international paralympic community president? >> yes, there has. there's shock and disbelief at the beginning, you know, in this kind of valentine's as i mentioned, the valentine's morning murder if you like. and, you know, this poor woman is dead. this beautiful, young woman is dead. for whatever reason we don't quite know yet. but in my ways pistorius, there's a degree of selfishness
12:08pm
about him like there are with all athletes at the top of sport but there hasn't really been any -- most people in the paralympic movement, most of the athletes are behind, you know, what pistorius has achieved. he's made the world watch the paralympics because of his achievements against the able-bodied, as well. so in many ways there's no negativity toward him at all but i think there's a lot of shock and disbelief and what's clear is, you know you can be disabled and commit murder. and i think that's one of the peculiar things in the story that this is a -- this was a kid put up there because of what he achieved and what -- the way he inspired so many people in spite of what he didn't have with his legs and so it's got a real story in to the life turning in to a murder trial and his life is hinging on a murder trial. >> well, you mentioned how
12:09pm
shocked you were and you have covered pistorius since he was 17 years old. looking back, were there any signs either that you observed or that anyone else observed that would maybe indicate his private persona was not exactly what his public persona is? >> no. not really in truth. i mean, i have skyped with oscar over the last decade. visited him many times in italy, in other countries where he's been competing. never been to his home in south africa i should add. you know, we skyped very often when we have needed to catch up and do interviews with each other. i've never -- i've witnessed himself a couple of times very angry. he took off the microphone and walked out of a bbc radio studio early last year when he was being interviewed on bbc radio for a grown-up program if you like and he was being criticized by the presenter for the fact
12:10pm
that maybe it is unfair that he was running against able-bodied with the prosthetic limbs. he got angry that morning and he stormed out. he was pretty angry when he lost the 200 meters in the paralympic games. the t-44 against the brazilian who he claimed was unnaturally tall because the blades were too long but within the parameters applicable by the committee. but on the other side of that, and i don't think he'd necessarily present an angry face to me. i have never him since he was a kid. i've seen him with the previous girlfriend in italy. peculiarly. i sat in the hotel room with him with a previous girlfriend back in 2008. and chatted to her, well, he got changed in his bathroom put on the evening legs for us to go out to dinner. he's told me stories, very interesting story, this one, where we didn't really talk about guns ever but there was a
12:11pm
time when he was stopped at amsterdam airport six years ago where his legs went through the security system and he was arrested and put in a police station and initially charged with terrorism because his legs had residue -- he had been shooting with a shotgun and the residue of the shotgun had been on his legs so he's been through a few peculiar instances and another one to tell you about is when he was a boy went to boarding school for boys and at the age of 15, he went within 3 days the kids knew he was the kid without legs and tease him and he got over it but they used to hide his legs at night in the dormitory and a particular night where he related to me that the boys in a very cruel prank, the boys hidden the legs and on the metal locker behind him, they set fire to a towel and some paper and had woken him up and told him that the house was on
12:12pm
fire and he said he woke up in a blind panic and was desperately trying to find his legs and couldn't find them and clear it's a prank. but it resonated with me in that panic he talked about in his affidavit about what happened to him the night when he says that he thought there were intruders in his house. >> hmm. >> so, gareth, he is out on bail for a few months and not participated in races but i guess the word from the camp is he is going to keep training. kind of curious, you know him well, what you make of that and might say about the mind-set. >> i think it's extraordinarily, frankly. i mean, you know, his coach came out with a comment. it was either late yesterday or today that oscar if he comes out on bail he may continue to do light training. maybe that's good for the mind-set to keep him calm because, obviously, he is
12:13pm
traumatized, you know, the girlfriend he loved is dead. the girlfriend they say loved him is dead. so, you know, he's -- i think training may help him, light training but extraordinary to hear the coach say it because surely right now the biggest thing in oscar pistorius' life is proving that the statement made about what happened that night is true and he proves it rather than worrying about any kind of athletic career. the story i wrote this morning was that obviously yesterday morning now sorry that nike dropped him. he was getting, you know, a million bucks a year in endorsements and, you know, dropped him as a fragrance ambassador. british telecom haven't said what they're going to do yet but, you know, i can't really comment on what's going to happen to him going forward but right now this young man's life is on hold. >> that's right. convicted already in terms of
12:14pm
corporate america. gareth, thank you very much. >> it's my pleasure. straight ahead, gas prices climbing and expected to jump 20 to 40 cents a gallon. ouch! who's to blame? one senator's idea to stop it. it's friday, february 22nd. great, everybody made it. we all work remotely so this is a big deal, our first full team gathering! i wanted to call on a few people. ashley, ashley marshall... here. since we're often all on the move, ashley suggested we use fedex office to hold packages for us. great job. [ applause ] thank you. and on a protocol note, i'd like to talk to tim hill about his tendency to use all caps in emails. [ shouting ] oh i'm sorry guys. ah sometimes the caps lock gets stuck on my keyboard. hey do you wanna get a drink later? [ male announcer ] hold packages at any fedex office location. all the things we love about sunday meals into each of her pot pies.
12:15pm
like tender white meat chicken and vegetables in a golden flaky crust that's made from scratch. marie callender's pot pies. it's time to savor.
12:16pm
in a golden flaky crust that's made from scratch. i've always kept my eye on her... but with so much health care noise, i didn't always watch out for myself. with unitedhealthcare, i get personalized information and rewards for addressing my health risks. but she's still going to give me a heart attack. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.
12:17pm
at the mercy of skyrocketing gas prices. we haven't seen a break in five weeks and experts say don't expect one until the spring.
12:18pm
if you fill up for the weekend, a national average is $3.68, up 15 cents from last week and up 46 cents from last month. >> i would last love to pay that. >> last year was the expensive ever on average and while digging deeper in the pocket, big oil is turning a massive profit. $118 billion last year, alone. they're called big oil for a reason. being bigger gave them more pricing power but senator schumer wants to break up big oil. he says we now have only about four large companies, that means when prices go up, they go up much faster and when they come down it's much slower. but energy columnist dan dicker who's traded oil for two decades says schumer's plan won't help you at the pump. dan, why not? >> see, it's kind of amazing. let me try to blow your minds. >> we're ready.
12:19pm
>> on the east coast, no, if you're on the east coast, you fill up the tank. the gasoline not from one of the big four but from on the east coast a private equity company, carlisle and then owned by delta airlines. now, this is not unusual. in fact, in the last several decades, and in fact over three years particularly, all of the big oil companies getting out of the refining business because it may be really, really good right now but it was really, really bad for many, many years and looked very, very hard at other people to buy the refining assets from them and they have sold them all. sunoco is out of the business. conoco phillips is out. marathon oil is out of the business. the people you remember from -- my youth. not your youth. >> right. >> the sinclair guy and the tiger in the tank and the connections between gasoline and oil companies is broken for several years. i don't know what schumer is talking about. >> my mind is not blown.
12:20pm
>> mind blown. >> you don't think that gasoline not made by oil companies is not -- >> it is. >> most people think it is. >> it doesn't surprise me. being broken up by that. >> i think it's significant. what about also the fed's loose money policy? what about every time we print money, we go on a money printing binge and the price of oil goes up. >> this is true but part of the reason you have money flowing in to bets like gasoline is because wall street has a tendency to find really hot trades and jump on them one after the other and one of the hottest trades over four months and particularly last two has been gasoline prices. we have seen, for example, in the stock market those refinery stocks done really, really well and commodities guys looking for the increase in the betting, too, and they have gone to the gasoline markets and seen a big rise, 50 cents in a month, for example, in gasoline prices and most of that has been what we call at least now speculation in
12:21pm
the market. >> right. >> not really about the supply and demand of what's going on in the gasoline market. >> hmm. >> hmm. >> well, dan, i can tell you i do remember sunoco and marathon oil. >> of course he does. >> you're not alone there, either. i'm curious to ask you about we talk about gas prices in the united states and i wonder sometimes if we lose sight of this is a global market and other countries out there, china comes to mind with an exploding market for oil. and we're sort of at the mercy of the rest of the world really. >> no, that is true, and but that's an unfortunate truth. looking at domestic gasoline or should be getting far, far better prices than what we are getting right now because our crude oil, in fact, is cheaper by about $25 than everywhere else around the globe and that should indicate we get a cheaper price for gasoline, too. we don't. because we have a lot of financial connections.
12:22pm
i don't want do get, again, too deep in the weeds but the financial connections connect the price of gasoline to global crude oil prices instead of to domestic crude oil prices. if they were connected to domestic crude oil prices you would see prices about a dollar lower than right now so these are some of the problems when you get a big financial market that sets prices for people and what they pay at the pump. >> well, dan, another thing that the president has focused on is trying to reduce the overall usage of gasoline and he's focused on fuel efficiency standards to do that. meanwhile, even though we're seeing prices rising, we pay less at the pump than most other places in the world. in fact, federal gasoline tax same since 1993 and inflation adjusted down about 40%. there was an op-ed in "the new york times" today and mit research scientists arguing we would be better off in terms of fuel efficiency reducing the usage of gasoline by increasing the gasoline tax and it would take less out of the economy
12:23pm
than the fuel efficiency standards. what do you think of that idea? >> i'm an advocate for all of these things. i think there's a time, we haven't raised the tax i think before reagan took office. that's a long time and we need to raise money somewhere to move ourselves forward toward renewables and the gas tax is a way to do that and, again, as the op-ed said, there's a better way to reduce the usage of gasoline than to increase the efficiency of cars. because, in fact, increasing the efficiency of cars, you get more miles to the gallon and people tend to drive more. >> makes you want to drive more. >> cheaper to drive. so, in fact, a gas tax hits immediately. drops the use of the amount of gasoline that each person uses. another way to move it forward and this is not as popular among the left with natural gas as a transport fuel. there's three attempts of congress in the last year and a half to move forward the natural gas conversation as a transport
12:24pm
fuel and both sides of the aisle they have had problems with that. been two t. boone pickens plans and all voted down and have been motions to move us away from gasoline as the only way and bringing in some other sources, for example, so we can try to get off of this national gasoline price. >> we said that the average is price is $3.62, i would love to pay that. i'm paying $4.50 and above for several years now i think as a new yorker. so that means somebody must be paying $3 for gas somewhere in america, right, if the average is $3.62. can you talk about why gas prices vary so much from state to state and region to region? >> well, there are certain regulations that each state can put in for their emissions to meet whatever standards the states require. one of the strictest, for
12:25pm
example, is in california. where, in fact, paying $5 a gallon right now for premium unleaded because they have to have, in fact, special refineries sited in california to make the grade they need to drive, to burn. >> gas makes me think of gas na but that's later. thank you very much. up next, when's the single greatest challenge facing black america today? an author answers that question. . that's not much, you think. except it's 2% every year. go to e-trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert: it's low. it's guidance on your terms, not ours. e-trade. less for us. more for you.
12:26pm
it's guidance on your terms, not ours. today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. [ bop ] [ bop ] [ bop ] you can do that all you want, i don't like v8 juice. [ male announcer ] how about v8 v-fusion. a full serving of vegetables, a full serving of fruit. but what you taste is the fruit. so even you... could've had a v8.
12:27pm
12:28pm
it's black history month and i'd rather not celebrate looking at the past but by trying to grapple with the big problems facing the black community today so i called in one of my favorite thinkers, michelle alexander, the brilliant author of "the new jim crow." how are you, professor?
12:29pm
>> fine. thank you for having me here. >> great. i think the war on drugs creates the pipeline, it turns us in to felons and can't get a job, can't be in public housing. it sort of ruins your life, criminalizing people who make youthful mistakes, often nonviolent with marijuana and it becomes a permanent mistake in their life. it creates a lot of hopelessness in the young black men, especially. do you think, obviously, you think that's one of the greatest problems in our community. >> absolutely. you know, here we are in black history month when, you know, some americans pause if only briefly to consider our racial history and our racial present and the possibilities for our collective future and it's 50 years after the march on washington. it's 150 years after the emancipation proclamation. and yet there are more african-american dults under control and on probation or
12:30pm
parole enslaved in 1850, decade before the civil war began. and in some major urban areas more than half of working age african-american men now have criminal records and are thus subject to legalized discrimination for the rest of their lives in employment and housing and access to education and public benefits and it's been the war on drugs. and the get tough movement that has quintupled our prison population and astonishingly short period of time. it's a drug war that's waged almost exclusively in poor communities of color even though studies consistently shown for decades that contrary to popular belief people of color no more likely to use or sell illegal drugs than whites. but nonetheless, in, you know, many states, african-americans have constituted 80% to 90% of those sent to prison for drug
12:31pm
offenses. even though people of all colors are roughly equally likely to use and sell drugs in their lifetime. >> i mean, that last point is important. i can hear people saying if you can't do the time, don't do the crime. but blacks and white use and sell drugs at almost equal rates and we are overprosecuted and overconvicted, oversentenced for these crimes. your book shined a huge light on this. opened a lot of peoples' eyes but are we any closer to reforming this drug prohibition and damaging the country? >> i think we are inching closer. i think there's a growing awareness that the war on drugs has been abysmal failure. we have spent $1 trillion waging the drug war since it began. and yet, rates of drug addiction and drug abuse remain largely unchanged. the sale price of, you know, most illegal drugs on the street
12:32pm
are about the same or lower when the war on drugs began. what do we have to show for this war? not much more than millions of lives destroyed, families decimated and millions of people who are now saddled with criminal records for the rest of their lives that will bar them access to employment and housing and education. we've created a vast new undercast, second class status of millions of americans today for what? for possessing or using illegal substances. you know, we supposedly criminalized drugs because we're so concerned about the harm that these substances cause people and then we end up inflicting vastly more harm than the substances themselves are likely to cause by locking people in cages and then relegating them to a permanent second class status. >> what's the solution? it can't just be as simple as legalizing drugs, right? >> well, i think ending the war
12:33pm
on drugs once and for all would be a major leap forward. if we're serious about ending mass incarceration, we have got to end the war on drugs. and although the obama administration has definitely engaged in a rhetorical shift on the drug war, you know, the drug czar said we shouldn't call it a war on drugs anymore. we ought not be as war with our own people. we have yet to see a major shift in policy. and, you know, i think that the polling data shows that the american public now, you know, understands that we should be investing in drug prevention and drug treatment rather than in massive incarceration and that the drug war has been an abysmal failure. this won't end mass incarceration. we are going to have to end the
12:34pm
harsh mandatory minimum sentences imposed for virtually all types of crimes and we're going to have end the forms of discrimination of people released from prison and guarantee that once you have been branded a criminal or felon you are unlikely to be able to survive in the economy and cycle in and out for many years or perhaps the rest of your life. >> yeah. michelle, i mean, you raise that point of what happens when people get out of jail. if we lived where there's universal access to voting for all convicted felons released, what do you think the political debate would look like then? would it be significantly different? >> well, i think, you know, it would be different if, you know, all those who have been branded felons actually had, you know, the right to vote. you know? it's interesting because in other western democracies, not only do people who have been branded criminals or felons have the right to vote, but in many
12:35pm
western democracies, prisoner vs the right to vote and voting drives in prison. but here in america, we seem to take the idea of democracy a little less seriously and we not only deny the right to vote people in prison in 48 states but strip them of their voting rights for a period of years or some states the rest of their lives. >> professor michelle alexander, author, thank you for being here. >> thank you. thank you again. straight ahead, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. a check on the oscar front runners and long shots with our favorite mysterious odds maker crunching the numbers of a secret location. [ fishing rod casting line, marching band playing ]
12:36pm
[ male announcer ] the rhythm of life. [ whistle blowing ] where do you hear that beat? campbell's healthy request soup lets you hear it... in your heart. [ basketball bouncing ] heart healthy. great taste. mmm... [ male announcer ] sounds good. it's amazing what soup can do. there's a lot i had to do... watch my diet. stay active. start insulin... today, i learned there's something i don't have to do anymore. my doctor said that with novolog® flexpen,
12:37pm
i don't have to use a syringe and a vial or carry a cooler. flexpen® comes prefilled with fast-acting insulin used to help control high blood sugar when you eat. dial the exact dose. inject by pushing a button. no drawing from a vial. you should eat a meal within 5 to 10 minutes after injecting novolog® (insulin aspart [rdna origin] injection). do not use if your blood sugar is too low, or if you are allergic to any of its ingredients. the most common side effect is low blood sugar, which may cause symptoms such as sweating shakiness, confusion, and headache. severe low blood sugar can be serious and life-threatening. ask your health care provider about alcohol use, operating machinery, or driving. other possible side effects include injection site reactions and low potassium in your blood. tell your health care provider about all medicines you take and all of your medical conditions. get medical help right away if you experience serious allergic reactions such as body rash, trouble with breathing, fast heartbeat, or sweating. flexpen® is insulin delivery my way. covered by most insurance plans, including medicare. find your co-pay cost at myflexpen.com. ask your health care provider about novolog® flexpen today
12:38pm
try e-mail marketing from constantcontact. it's the fastest, easiest way to create great-looking custom e-mails that bring customers through your door. sign up for your free trial today at constantcontact.com/try. to prove febreze can keep this car fresh, we loaded it with fast food, sweaty hockey gear, and a smelly dog cage. and parked it at a mall. in texas. for two days. then put a febreze car vent clip on the dash and let in real people. it smells good. like laundry fresh out of like the dryer. yeah. a man fresh out of the shower. nailed it. oh yeah. proof. febreze car vent clips keep your car fresh. another way febreze helps you breathe happy. bust out the tux or your college sweatshirt and sweat
12:39pm
pants which is probably what i'll be wearing for the academy awards this sunday. >> every day. >> will lincoln lovers like toure with a best picture oscar, will anne sing to a statue and win over s.e. with a better speech? will this cyclist make it to the end of the show? i usually do catch the finale. it's the beginning that i have some problems with. anyway -- >> weird. >> we have put our money where our mouths are. it's about 100 miles from me. i'm not sure if i'm supposed to admit that on tv but i'll surely brag about it on monday. >> you won't. >> here's where the smart money is, pat morrow on the phone, head odds maker for an online gambling destination, and pat, if that is your real name, i want to ask you about the race
12:40pm
and that's best picture. and we have been -- we were originally told that this is "lincoln's" year. and then in more recently it's "argo." there's a two-way race there. i'm heari ining lately and i th ebert said there's a flurry of buzz of "silver linings playbook." we see this with two heavyweights duking it out and maybe a third one to sneak up and win. what do you think are the odds for "silver lining's play book" of a smart long shot on sunday night? >> thank you for having me back on. i can confirm my first name is pat. there you go. outside of that, yeah, we have seen a bit of a trickling down on the silver lining play book odds. they were up 40 to 1 and now 20 to 1 now. we still anticipate it being a two-horse race between "argo"
12:41pm
and "lincoln." there's the smallest chance "silver lining's play book" can surprise us. >> pat, to that point, typically the best director is director of the best picture and you have i think spielberg is the favorite to win best director so doesn't that make him the favorite in terms of "lincoln" winning best picture? >> to be honest, you are right and what we're hoping for on sunday and prefer "lincoln" wins and i think you have to go back to 2005 was the last time you didn't have the best picture and the best director lineup. i think it was "crash" won best picture. >> right. >> and "brokeback mountain" director won for best director. outside of that, usually you see that matchup. it's a very interesting scenario this year and would have expected spielberg and "lincoln" one-two together but the problem is ben affleck wasn't nominated
12:42pm
to win. that was kind of a head scratcher for us and then "argo" winning the golden globes and screen actors guild and back in january we had "argo" 7 to 1 odds and now flipped them. "linco "lincoln" is now 5 to 1. it kind of flipped the scenario on its head. >> pat, i mean, it's not really actually a best picture race. i mean, it's as if everybody's shown their cards. the directors, the producers, the writers and the actors. and the form of sag given awards to "argo." everybody's said we'll vote for them. there's no chance that any other picture wins. it is not a two-picture race. "argo" will win, spielberg, day-lewis, hathaway. the only thing i would like your advice about is best supporting actor. there's a real race.
12:43pm
waltz could win, deniro, jones. maybe hoffman. who would you suggest we go for here? >> i think with that best supporting actor spot, it's a rare situation where all nominees have won an academy award before. my personal favorite is waltz. it's one of my favorite most versatile actors right now. we actually had him having said that 30 to 1 prior to the golden globes and he won. golden globes, those are two biggest indicators right now and waltz and tommy lee jones split those. deniro it was 6 to 1 and now plus 450 now and that's a spot where if you think "silver lining's playbook" if you think it's a shot, i think robert deniro 9 to 2 probably the best shot of a long shot to win on
12:44pm
sunday. >> well, pat morrow, head odds maker, thanks so much for joining us and weighing in. we'll have to check your predictions against toure's later. >> thanks so much, guys. >> so guys, i will watch -- >> you're such a loser! >> what? >> such a loser! >> beautiful. >> updated maps, as always. >> oh man. >> i'll watch the oscars. i'm in the oscar pool and made my picks and the best part about sunday is going to happen at 1:00 where daytona 500 begins. greatest day in racing and for the first time in history, a woman is starting on the poll. that's danica patrick. >> cool. >> who i'm forced to like now because she's my driver's teammate, tony stewart. i'm team smoke. go 14. whose new sponsor is bass pro. i can't wait. anyone else going to watch?
12:45pm
>> i'm also forced to cheer for her, the only one i know anything about. >> dale jr. is my man. we hung out a couple of years ago. great dude. i won't be watching. >> steve? >> wow. here i am talking about having trouble staying awake through the oscars. cars driving in circles for three hours. have fun with that, s.e. >> i will. >> go fast, turn left. >> for those that don't win big this weekend, we'll tell you how to turn that golden idea in to a gold mine. tips of a start-up pro ahead. [ susan ] ...as though he had never left.
12:46pm
the end. lovely read susan. but isn't it time to turn the page on your cup of joe? gevalia, or a cup of johan, is like losing yourself in a great book. may i read something? yes, please. of course. a rich, never bitter taste cup after cup. net weight 340 grams. [ sighs ] [ chuckles ] [ announcer ] always rich, never bitter. gevalia. [ announcer ] always rich, never bitter. ♪ ♪ no two people have the same financial goals. pnc works with you to understand yours and help plan for your retirement. visit a branch or call now for your personal retirement review.
12:47pm
12:48pm
chances are, you're not made of money, so don't overpay for motorcycle insurance. geico, see how much you could save.
12:49pm
you can start with the simplest idea. a new slimming undergarments for ladies. the need for wheels but only on occasion. a diaper bag with pockets, too. critical. for blakely, chase and diamant, their ideas are now million if not billion-dollar companies that changed their industries for the better. can yours be next? david kidder is an entrepreneur and has the winning strategies of start-up pros in "the startup play book." david, thanks so much for being with us. >> thank you for having me. >> you had a quote that grabbed me from chris dixon saying building a startup will be the home ownership of the next century. what does that mean? >> we see how the equity in the home, that value turned out last half century idea of wealth. >> not great.
12:50pm
>> for a millennial, there's not a big corporation to help you with and future of social security long term is somewhat in doubt and better create something, create an original idea, a thinking around something that's an innate gift and produce value and create economic opportunity for yourself and others. >> and i was talking to david berstein today who wrote "fast future" and saying a lot of young the turning to entrepreneuriali entrepreneurialism. are you finding that to be the case? >> i think that there was a long period of time that, you know, we thought that jobs would come back in to various warts of the country. i think people are now, that sense of ownership is now moving from outside them to inside them in a lot of spirits. they realize they need to have a complete sense of ownership for their future. economically, intellectually and now out there creating things and the zuckerberg stories of
12:51pm
the world. i mean, there have been great fortunes but it's a career path and i think that it's no longer just, you know, winning the money ball. you can actually produce this life where you can be a career, you know, entrepreneur. there's brad pitt sort of speak in this book but i'm a steve buc is hemi book. you want to create things and turns out well economically and no longer just this, you know, outlier type of outcome. >> right. >> it's approachable. >> i wonder if you have something like a kick starter that changed the game of entrepreneurship and have an idea, you can put it online, you can attract very small dollar investors if they believe in it. how much has that sort of changed the game? >> well, kick start is a disrupter or a leveller sort to speak of the venture capital world venture capitalists because they want to get into the new structure of
12:52pm
how things are financed. also, the cost base of building companies is so low now that you can actually go and create a business by using cloud-based services or online open source tools. back during the dotcom era, which i kind of grew up in, you had to raise in many cases millions or tens of millions of dollars just for the pla the platform. now it's like utilities. you can enter the marketplace on a cost basis that allows the dollars you raise to be highly effective, highly creative towards building out your idea. so mark places like kick starter both attract small amounts of capital en masse. scott wilson created lunatic watch and one of the first million dollar raises on kick starter and brought that platform to the map and said you can create a whole company. you can build something that's utterly unique and be funded by the people who are eventually going to buy you. so part of building companies is the confidence and speed to get to the answers and kick starter sort of disrupts all of those
12:53pm
complex questions and delivers them to you with money and so you can really do some extraordinary things. i encourage you to use that platform and there's others. >> and david, one of the really cool things about the book is you feature all these fascinating entrepreneurs and tell their stories about what made them suck susful and you feature both for-profit companies like zip car and aol and some nonprofits like charity water and acumen fund. there are fumal differences between the approaches that those two typeses of startups take to be successful. >> you have to recognize the complexity in all things. it's often not the product, it's really people, talent. the challenge between doing a startup versus a nonprofit is you're dealing with volunteers. it's about the growth. it's about the scale. whereas in the kind of volunteerism, the nonprofit world, you're dealing with spirits.
12:54pm
doing it on purpose. those have to be architected well. you need to hire well. you need to make sure you discover the motives so they actually are working in concert with the goals of the company whether it be for money or for good. >> the steve buscemi of startups. >> if i was as successful as him, that would be fantastic. >> thank you so much for being with us. >> thank you. from the startup playbook to the political playbook because that's the only place washington seems to be looking at these days. the sequester deadline is just one week from today and still no deal because congress isn't in session. why would they be? we want to know who you will hold responsible if we're slammed with $85 billion in cuts this year alone by september. jose says everybody, and i mean everybody. hopefully not us though. >> no, that's you, krystal. >> you know the drill, like us on facebook and let us know what you think and we might bring back the sequester wheel of fortune if you're lucky,
12:55pm
misfortune you should say. still ahead, toure's take on all the drama in south africa on the oscar hisser to yaus case. and rewards for addressing my health risks. but she's still going to give me a heart attack. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. ♪ they hatin' ♪ patrolling they tryin' to catch me ridin' dirty ♪ ♪ tryin' to catch me ridin' dirty ♪ ♪ tryin' to -- [ woman ] hi there. why do we always have to take your mom's car? [ male announcer ] the security of an iihs top safety pick, the 2013 volkswagen tiguan. that's the power of german engineering. right now lease a 2013 tiguan for $219 a month. ♪
12:56pm
12:57pm
12:58pm
the oscar pistorius and reeva steenkamp situation is perhaps our gun debate writ small. he said he was armed because he was scared of burglars. put aside for now whether or not you believe his story. i'm sympathize with fear of a home invasion. the gun rights community rests much of their argument on what should we do when an armed criminal busts in. the nra has successfully spread many lies and myth but studies show guns can help citizens protect themselves against criminals but not without
12:59pm
massive risk to those who live near that gun every day. david mhemingway, professor at harvard, says the data shows the possibility of using a gun in a socially useful manner, against a criminal, will for the average person occur once in a lifetime or less. it is an extremely rare event. even gary kleck concedes there's a little need for a gun for self protection for most americans because there's so little risk of crime. people don't believe it but it's true. you just can't convince most americans they're not at serious risk. many will say it's my right to be prepared for that once in a lifetime moment. fine, fair enough. oscar was prepared and what happened to him? and two reeva is the far more likely outcome. a gun in the home for protection is far more likely to be used against the people in that home than against an intruder. the evidence shows a gun in the home makes those in the home less safe and is more likely to kill innocent v